IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Montana St.
Big Sky
2018-19

Overall
Predictive Rating	-5.1	#251
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	72.3	#93
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-1.3	#205

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-3.9	#294

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	2.5%	4.0%	1.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.0	14.7	15.3

.500 or above	25.9%	40.3%	17.3%
.500 or above in Conference	41.9%	52.3%	35.7%
Conference Champion	2.5%	4.2%	1.6%
Last Place in Conference	10.7%	6.2%	13.3%

First Four	0.8%	0.9%	0.7%
First Round	2.2%	3.5%	1.4%
Second Round	0.2%	0.4%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Utah St. (Home) - 37.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0.0 - 0.7	0.0 - 0.7
Quad 1b	0.1 - 1.1	0.1 - 1.8
Quad 2	0.4 - 2.6	0.4 - 4.4
Quad 3	2.2 - 6.3	2.6 - 10.7
Quad 4	8.9 - 6.7	11.5 - 17.5

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 06, 2018	144	Utah St.	L	71-78	37%
Nov 09, 2018	25	@ Indiana	L	66-84	3%
Nov 14, 2018	180	@ Colorado St.	L	75-79	26%
Nov 17, 2018	177	@ UC Santa Barbara	L	72-76	25%
Nov 21, 2018	94	@ Arkansas	L	73-83	12%
Nov 24, 2018	253	@ Nebraska Omaha	W	79-78	39%
Nov 27, 2018	271	North Dakota	W	78-77	62%
Dec 09, 2018	191	Washington St.	L	75-79	36%
Dec 18, 2018	200	@ Denver	L	71-74	30%
Dec 29, 2018	295	@ Southern Utah	W	80-78	47%
Dec 31, 2018	326	@ Northern Arizona	W	75-70	59%
Jan 03, 2019	246	Portland St.	L	82-83	58%
Jan 05, 2019	257	Sacramento St.	W	73-72	61%
Jan 10, 2019	262	@ Idaho	W	72-71	42%
Jan 14, 2019	172	Northern Colorado	L	75-80	44%
Jan 19, 2019	174	@ Eastern Washington	L	71-76	25%
Jan 24, 2019	147	Weber St.	L	72-78	39%
Jan 26, 2019	247	Idaho St.	L	76-77	59%
Feb 02, 2019	73	Montana	L	69-81	21%
Feb 04, 2019	172	@ Northern Colorado	L	75-80	26%
Feb 07, 2019	174	Eastern Washington	L	71-76	45%
Feb 09, 2019	262	Idaho	W	72-71	62%
Feb 14, 2019	247	@ Idaho St.	L	76-77	40%
Feb 16, 2019	147	@ Weber St.	L	72-78	22%
Feb 23, 2019	73	@ Montana	L	69-81	10%
Mar 02, 2019	326	Northern Arizona	W	75-70	76%
Mar 04, 2019	295	Southern Utah	W	80-78	67%
Mar 07, 2019	257	@ Sacramento St.	W	73-72	42%
Mar 09, 2019	246	@ Portland St.	L	82-83	39%
Projected Record						11.5 - 17.5	8.8 - 11.2

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big Sky Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st														0.0	0.2	0.5	0.7	0.5	0.4	0.1	0.0		2.5	1st
2nd												0.0	0.2	1.0	1.7	1.5	0.7	0.3	0.0				5.5	2nd
3rd											0.1	0.7	2.1	3.0	1.7	0.6	0.1	0.0					8.2	3rd
4th										0.1	1.1	3.1	3.4	1.8	0.4	0.0							9.9	4th
5th								0.0	0.1	1.3	4.0	3.5	1.3	0.3	0.0								10.4	5th
6th							0.0	0.2	2.1	4.4	4.0	1.6	0.2	0.0									12.4	6th
7th						0.0	0.3	2.0	4.9	3.8	0.9	0.2											12.1	7th
8th					0.0	0.4	2.5	4.7	3.4	0.8	0.1												11.8	8th
9th				0.0	0.7	2.6	4.3	2.8	0.6	0.1													11.0	9th
10th		0.0	0.2	1.3	2.7	3.1	1.6	0.4	0.0														9.4	10th
11th	0.1	0.7	1.6	2.1	1.5	0.6	0.2	0.0															6.7	11th

Total	0.1	0.7	1.8	3.4	4.8	6.7	8.8	10.2	11.1	10.5	10.1	9.1	7.1	6.1	4.0	2.6	1.6	0.9	0.4	0.1	0.0			Total

Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
19-1	100.0%	0.1		0.1	0.0
18-2	93.1%	0.4		0.3	0.1
17-3	61.1%	0.5		0.3	0.3	0.0
16-4	46.4%	0.7		0.4	0.2	0.0
15-5	17.8%	0.5		0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0
14-6	6.0%	0.2		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0
13-7	0.7%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.0%
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	2.5%	2.5		1.3	0.8	0.3	0.1

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.0%		96.8%	96.8%		12.8									0.0				0.0	0.0	0.0			0.0
19-1	0.1%		85.7%	85.4%	0.3%	12.5												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0			0.0		2.4%
18-2	0.4%		31.9%	28.7%	3.2%	12.9												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.3		4.5%
17-3	0.9%		14.1%	14.0%	0.1%	13.7												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.8		0.1%
16-4	1.6%		18.9%	18.9%		14.5													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	1.3
15-5	2.6%		14.1%	14.1%		14.7													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.1	2.2
14-6	4.0%		5.7%	5.7%		15.1														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	3.7
13-7	6.1%		5.2%	5.2%		15.5														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	5.8
12-8	7.1%		3.8%	3.8%		15.7															0.0	0.1	0.2	6.8
11-9	9.1%		3.7%	3.7%		15.8																0.1	0.3	8.7
10-10	10.1%		1.8%	1.8%		15.9																0.0	0.2	9.9
9-11	10.5%		0.5%	0.5%		16.0																	0.0	10.4
8-12	11.1%		0.5%	0.5%		16.0																0.0	0.1	11.0
7-13	10.2%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																	0.0	10.1
6-14	8.8%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	8.8
5-15	6.7%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	6.7
4-16	4.8%																							4.8
3-17	3.4%																							3.4
2-18	1.8%																							1.8
1-19	0.7%																							0.7
0-20	0.1%																							0.1

Total	100%		2.5%	2.5%	0.0%	15.0									0.0			0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.7	1.1	97.5		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.1%